An updated analysis of the performance of COVID-19 vaccination programs reveals why the federal government will be hoping for the long-promised acceleration of Australia's rollout.
The updated analysis coincides with day 175 since the launch of Australia's national program and the federal government's announcement it has secured one million doses of Pfizer's mRNA vaccine from Poland.
The analysis also includes Israel, Canada, the UK, US, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand and the European Union.
It simply shows the speed of rollouts is inextricably linked to supply.
Some countries with advanced rollouts benefited by acting early in the pandemic to secure future supply. Others have seen the rapid acceleration of their rollouts once supply constraints are overcome.
Australia and New Zealand are still waiting to see the rapid acceleration observed in other jurisdictions.
Australia's rollout was almost always destined to be behind those in many comparable countries for the simple reason it was launched later. The programs in Israel, the UK, the US and the European Union were launched in December 2020. Canada launched its program in early January 2021.
Australia launched its program in late February 2021, around the same time as those in Malaysia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand.
Australia's rollout has also been impacted by a supply constraint that was complicated by advice from the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation to preference the use of Pfizer's mRNA vaccine in younger populations.
This advice has led to confusion over the use of AstraZeneca's adenovirus viral vector vaccine. This vaccine was intended to be the 'workhorse' of Australia's rollout.
Supply is a significant influence on the speed of rollouts
The US and UK guaranteed their supply of doses in the early period of the pandemic through a combination of direct investment in the development of vaccine candidates and advance purchase agreements.
Israel, which did not act as quickly as the US and UK, resolved the risk of supply by agreeing to essentially turn the country's program into a real-world clinical trial by providing de-identified patient data to Pfizer.
Canada experienced significant supply constraints in the early period of the pandemic but they were resolved through a combination of the timely delivery of doses and imports of excess doses from the US.
The European Union's well-publicised supply issues, which led to a ban on exports of doses manufactured in its 27 member states, were resolved and its rollout quickly accelerated.
Australia and New Zealand were comparatively late in securing a supply of what were then advanced vaccine candidates. In fact, by the time they started announcing agreements, companies with the leading candidates were just weeks from announcing late-stage trial data.
These factors are all evident in the speed of the rollouts.
Another factor could be the number of vaccines used in each jurisdiction.
The US is currently using three vaccines, as is Canada, Japan and Malaysia, while the UK, the European Union and South Korea are using four.
Israel administered the first dose of COVID-19 vaccine to 60 per cent of its population in the first 100 days of its program based on the use of one.
New Zealand is currently relying on one vaccine and Australia two.
The updated analysis shows the rollouts in what are predominantly comparable countries can be grouped into five categories.
Israel is in a category of its own (tier one) given it administered doses so quickly it is now focused on booster shots for vulnerable population groups.
The next category (tier two) is comprised of Canada, the UK and the US. The programs in these countries were steady for the first 30 days and then accelerated rapidly to day 150.
The third tier is comprised of Malaysia, Japan and South Korea. The programs in these countries had a slow first 100 days but they have accelerated dramatically to day 175 as they overcame supply constraints.
The European Union is in the fourth tier where the program had a steady first 150 days but then accelerated dramatically.
The rollouts in Australia and New Zealand, which have been categorised as tier five, have been steady but are yet to see the acceleration observed in the others.
Australia is starting to see an acceleration with the number of doses administered daily approaching 250,000 and the federal government will now be hoping for the type of uplift observed in other countries.
The federal government points to the 'eligible population' to have received a dose of vaccine. The eligible population will continue to grow as the program is expanded to include younger population groups.
