The prime minister said Australia is at the "front of the pack" for a COVID-19 vaccine but it practically lost the race in an eleven-week period from early June to mid-August during which other countries and global organisations disclosed 32 deals worth over US$10 billion for at least 5 billion doses of the investigative candidates.
These 32 deals were disclosed between the Australian government announcing an additional $2 million for The University of Queensland (UQ) vaccine (2 June) and a ‘letter of intent’ with AstraZeneca (18 August) for the vaccine it is developing with The University of Oxford (AstraZeneca-Oxford).
The ‘letter of intent’ does not include any commitment to dose numbers. An agreement with CSL to manufacture the vaccine is yet to be finalised. The company has said it 'can' manufacture the AstraZeneca-Oxford adenovirus viral vector vaccine but it will take time when it starts the process of repurposing one of its facilities.
Since the 'letter of intent was signed, countries and companies have signed more deals for over 500 million doses.
Last week, the federal government announced $80 million for the global COVAX facility. This is a third-party arrangement and not an advance purchase agreement with a manufacturer.
The government did not announce its 'COVID-19 Vaccine and Treatment Strategy' until 7 August.
Other governments did not wait that long.
The US government launched its COVID-19 vaccine 'operation warp speed' initiative on 29 April - three months before the Australian government released its plan. The US actually announced its first deal on 30 March - before it formalised 'warp speed' - and has now announced commitments for 1.4 billion doses of six vaccine candidates.
The UK has disclosed over US$750 million for five investigative vaccines. Since 17 May - around 12 weeks before the release of Australia's 'letter of intent' with AstraZeneca - the UK has secured over 300 million doses.
The lost eleven weeks
Countries, companies and global organisations signed 32 deals in the eleven weeks between the Australian government announcing an additional $2 million for UQ (2 June) and its ‘letter of intent’ with AstraZeneca (18 August).
These 32 deals disclosed US$10 billion in commitments to secure over five billion doses of the investigative candidates. Some of the deals did not disclose financial terms or estimated dose numbers.
In the eleven weeks, CEPI committed over US$450 million to three vaccine candidates, including additional support to UQ.
Overall, the AstraZeneca-Oxford candidate was the subject of 11 other disclosed agreements during these eleven weeks.
Brazil announced two deals for AstraZeneca-Oxford with an investment in excess of US$450 million in return for 130 million doses.
AstraZeneca-Oxford was also involved in an US$885 million 400 million dose deal with Europe’s Inclusive Vaccines Alliance (13 June), a 400 million dose deal with the European Union (14 August), as well as manufacturing capacity deals with the Serum Institue of India (4 June), Catalent (15 June), South Korea (21 July), the UK (3 August), China (6 August), Argentina and Mexico (14 August).
The US was very active in these eleven weeks through its 'operation warp speed' initiative - in fact, in just six weeks within that eleven-week period (7 July - 22 August), it committed over US$7.5 billion for 900 million doses.
It committed US$1.6 billion to Novavax in return for 100 million doses (7 July), US$1.95 billion to Pfizer-BioNTech for 600 million doses (22 July), a combined US1.97 billion to Moderna for 100 million doses (26 July and 22 August) and US$2.1 billion to Sanofi-GSK for 100 million doses (31 July).
The US Department of Defence separately committed US$60 million for 10 million doses of the Novavax candidate (4 June).
The UK was also active. It secured over 200 million doses, in addition to those it already had, in just four weeks within the eleven-week period (20 July - 17 August).
It secured 30 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech candidate (20 July), committed US$650 million to Sanofi-GSK for 60 million doses (29 July), and signed deals with Novavax for 60 million doses (16 August) and J&J for 30 million doses with the option of an additional 22 million (17 August).
The UK now has advance purchase agreements for over 300 million doses.
Japan was also active, securing 120 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech candidate (31 July), as well as an agreement with Takeda to produce the Novavax (7 August) candidate.
The European Union (EU) has also confirmed agreements or 'advance supply talks' with Sanofi-GSK for 300 million doses (31 July) and 200 million doses of the J&J candidate (13 August) in addition to 400 million doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford investigative vaccine (14 August).
Even Sweden, a country that has eschewed the COVID-19 suppression strategy, has secured six million doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine through a US$229 million commitment to support the EU's deal (Sweden is not a member of the EU).
South Korea announced local company SK Bioscience will manufacture antigen for Novavax (13 August) in addition to its commitment to manufacturing the AstraZeneca-Oxford candidate (21 July).
Several other countries secured supply or manufacturing deals during this eleven-week period, including Switzerland with Moderna (7 August), Indonesia with SinoVac (13 August) and Argentina and Mexico with AstraZeneca-Oxford (14 August).
