New research has revealed the combination of measures that will be required to ensure Australia reaches its COVID-19 vaccination target.
The federal government says the country can start the process of eliminating the need for restrictions and lockdowns once 70 per cent of the eligible population is vaccinated. It says 80 per cent of the eligible population will need to be vaccinated to completely eliminate the need for lockdowns.
The independent organisation Community and Patient Preference Research (CaPPRe) surveyed 1,018 adults in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland who are 'unwilling or undecided' about receiving a COVID-19 vaccine.
The objective was to discover what combination of cash incentives and ongoing social restrictions would encourage these people to get vaccinated.
CaPPRe's Dr Simon Fifer told BioPharmaDispatch that much of the research on so-called vaccine-hesitancy has been based on 'either-or' trade-offs.
Dr Fifer said individual decision-making on the vaccine is more complex.
"The 'unwilling or undecided' are around 30 per cent of the population. It is comprised of several groups with different issues and attitudes when it comes to vaccines," he said, adding that around half of the 30 per cent will not be convinced of the need to accept vaccination.
"Reaching the government's goal that will eliminate the need for lockdowns means the other half of the 30 per cent will need to be convinced. Our research shows that it will take a combination of the carrot and stick with something positive and something negative," said Dr Fifer.
CaPPRe modeled (see interactive dashboard here) how individuals make choices on the vaccine based on their own 'unique value framework'.
It asked people to consider 16 hypothetical policy arrangements that included different combinations of cash incentives ($0 - $500) and restrictions (proof of vaccination required to attend major events, travel, work in shared spaces, gatherings, public transport, and food and entertainment). Then it asked whether or not people would get vaccinated under the different policies with the vaccine of their choice, or if they only had access to the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Dr Fifer said the people surveyed can be broadly categorised into three groups.
"The first is comprised of the hard-core 'no' group. This is around 40 per cent of the 'unwilling or undecided'. They have not been vaccinated and they will not be vaccinated. They cannot be moved.
"The other two groups are where the measures need to be focused.
"The second group are the 'wait and watch' people and comprise around 36 per cent of the 'unwilling or undecided'. The modelling shows some of this group are just waiting for access to the Pfizer vaccine while others will be motivated by the risk of the unvaccinated having to continue to live with restrictions. A cash incentive will also work, regardless of the level, but it is the restrictions that really drive many of the people in this second group."
According to CaPPRe, "Social restrictions were most likely to increase vaccination in this group, and proof of vaccination to attend restaurants, cafes, movies, theatres, pubs, bars, and nightclubs increased predicted vaccine uptake by five times. Cash incentives also increased the likelihood of this group receiving a vaccine by around 5 times, although the amount of the incentive did not seem to influence vaccine uptake dramatically (all cash incentives 4-5 times more likely)."
Dr Fifer continued, "The third group are hesitant and are 23 per cent of the 'unwilling or undecided'. They are not anti-vaxxers but they are hesitant. They do not respond to the threat of restrictions but they will to a cash incentive."
The Labor opposition has proposed a cash incentive of around $300 to encourage people to be vaccinated against COVID-19. The federal government has dismissed the proposal but the CaPPRe modelling shows the third group were 12 times more likely to get vaccinated if they received a $500 cash incentive.
Dr Fifer said the combination of the cash incentive and the risk of having to live with ongoing restrictions could convince 53 per cent of the 'unwilling or undecided' of the need to be vaccinated.
"The modelling shows just using restrictions or the cash incentive alone will not work," he added.
